Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, June 30th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, recovering some of yesterday’s afternoon losses. The major stock indexes are showing minor gains with the Dow up 34 points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (1.48%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s levels. Many lenders revised pricing higher late Wednesday as bonds slid into closing. If your lender did make an intraday increase, you should see an improvement in this morning’s pricing of approximately the same amount.

9/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.48%

34


Dow


17,728

1


NASDAQ


4,780

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low


Positive


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment numbers were today’s only relevant economic news, showing that 268,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 258,000 initial claims and was a bit higher than the 265,000 that was expected. The numbers hint that the employment sector softened last week, making the data favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this is a pretty minor piece of data because it’s a weekly report, so its impact on today’s mortgage pricing has been minimal.

High


Unknown


ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Tomorrow also has only one economic report that we will be watching, but it is much more important to the financial and mortgage markets than today’s report was. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for June at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. May's reading that was posted last month came in at 51.3. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting a reading of 51.5, indicating slight improvement in manufacturer sentiment. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a decline in the index, signaling worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. This is the week's most important report and is watched closely because it is the first piece of data that tracks the previous month's activity.

Medium


Unknown


Holiday Schedule

It is also worth noting tomorrow brings us an early close in the bond market ahead of the Independence Day holiday. Stocks should be open for a full day of trading while bonds will close at 2:00 PM ET. All the markets will be close Monday and will reopen Tuesday for regular trading hours.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.